Play-Hysteresis in the Joint Dynamics of Employment and Investment

The slow recovery of many developed economies to the recent financial crisis, and the largest fall in aggregate demand since WWII caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic with its foreseeable negative and persistent effects on the aggregate supply, has generated renewed interest in the subject of hysteresis. The presence of significant hysteresis effects has important theoretical and policy implications. First, there is no unique and predetermined long-run equilibrium level of aggregate employment, as the equilibrium is permanently changed by temporary shocks. Second, as the economic system is not self-adjusting, substantial, timely, and sustained expansionary monetary and fiscal policy should be applied to mitigate the impact of shocks, including the temporary ones. Although it is not possible to quantify hysteresis effects in real time, we can use historical data to shed some light on the possible long-term economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. For that purpose, we use the linear play-hysteresis model in the context of two equation system to analyses the join hysterical dynamics of aggregate employment and investment. We implement the model empirically by means of a new algorithm for the simultaneous equations system applied to Portuguese data that separates the effects of large and small changes in aggregate demand on aggregate employment and investment using an endogenous determined switching parameter as reference.

Implications of COVID-19 pandemic in Out-Of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic determined a modification in the approach to Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA), promoting the safety of providers and maintaining effectiveness of resuscitation. Before the orientations from ERC, AHA and UKRC were published, in Portugal the National Institute of Medical Emergency (INEM) developed clinical recommendations based on the available scientific evidence, including the use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and management of OHCA (surgical mask for patients, chest compressions, oxygen by nasal cannula without ventilation as well as rational use of airway and ventilation management techniques). To evaluate the impact of the referred measures a retrospective observational study analysed the data collected from the Portuguese's National Registry of Cardiac Arrests between March 1 and May 31 of 2020 and compared with the homologous period of 2019. During the referred period were registered in 2020 a total of 4673 cases of OHCA, 11% more than in 2019 during the same period (n = 4201). No gender or age differences were found between the two samples. The cause of OHCA showed no major differences concerning cardiac (48.92% vs. 49.41%) or respiratory causes (4.78% vs. 4.39%). Basic life support was performed in 74.93% of OCHA cases in 2020, 6.17% less than in 2019 (68.76%). From these, ROSC (return of spontaneous circulation) was obtained in fewer cases in 2020 (8.45% vs. 4.17%). The recommendations issued determined safety as during the referred period INEM had 0.9% (18/1936) of providers infected with COVID 19. Considering the results (11% more of OHCA, 6.17% less life support manoeuvres and 4.28% less of ROSC) the effectiveness of modifications addressing OCHA needs a more profound analysis namely the relation between time of arrival at the scene and donning of PPI as well as the correlation of ROSC and the medical decision not to perform advanced life support.